The US Dollar gained ground against most major currencies as traders reduced their expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to BBH FX analysts, fed funds futures now place the odds of a December 10 rate cut at below 50%, following a series of cautious remarks from Fed officials—including Bostic, Logan, Schmid, Kashkari, Musalem, Hammack, and Collins—who warned against moving too quickly on policy easing.
Hawkish Fed Tone Supports the Dollar
BBH notes that the officials’ comments were largely in line with their typically hawkish stance, and several of them are not voting members this year, though they will rotate in as voters next year. Today’s Fed speakers include New York Fed President John Williams, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (2026 voter), and Governor Christopher Waller.
The minutes of the October 28–29 FOMC meeting, due Wednesday, are expected to provide additional insight into the growing number of policymakers favoring a pause in rate cuts. However, BBH emphasizes that upcoming US economic data will be more influential for short-term rate expectations.
Key Data Ahead: NFP in Focus
This week’s data calendar is led by September’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday. Markets expect job gains of around 50,000, up from 22,000 in August—roughly in line with the 30k–50k breakeven pace needed to stabilize unemployment.
For context, ADP reported a 32,000 drop in private employment for August, while Revelio Labs estimated a 33,000 increase in combined public and private jobs. A falling hiring rate continues to signal weak labor demand, suggesting potential downside risks to the upcoming NFP print.
Secondary data releases include August construction spending (today), factory orders (Tuesday), the trade balance (Wednesday), and September real earnings (Friday).
