The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday at 13:30 GMT, offering fresh clues about the state of the US labor market and the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
Markets expect September payrolls to rise by 50,000, more than double August’s weak 22,000 increase. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to grow 3.7% year-over-year, matching August’s pace.
Analysts at TD Securities anticipate a stronger rebound, looking for 100,000 total job gains, supported by a 125,000 increase in private employment and a 25,000 drop in government jobs. They also expect wage growth to slow slightly to 0.2% MoM (3.6% YoY).
Market Implications and EUR/USD Outlook
The US Dollar has regained strong upward momentum ahead of the data, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.1600.
Expectations for a December Fed rate cut have sharply declined after cautious comments from policymakers and mixed US economic data. Fed Minutes released Wednesday indicated concern that further rate cuts could undermine progress on inflation. Following the release, the probability of a December cut fell to 33%, down from 50% earlier.
Recent indicators paint a mixed picture of the US economy:
- ADP private payrolls for October rose 42,000, beating expectations.
- Challenger layoffs surged 183% month-over-month, the worst October in two decades.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened to 48.7, while Services PMI surprised to the upside at 52.4.
Economists at Wells Fargo note that despite being somewhat outdated, the September NFP report may be the final major labor release before the Fed’s December meeting—potentially carrying outsized influence.
A weaker-than-expected report, with payrolls below 50,000 or a higher unemployment rate, could revive expectations of a rate cut and push EUR/USD toward 1.1700. Conversely, strong job gains and a stable or lower unemployment rate may reinforce USD strength, potentially driving EUR/USD below 1.1400.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta highlights persistent downside bias:
- EUR/USD closed below the 21-day SMA at 1.1574, strengthening bearish momentum.
- The 14-day RSI remains below the midpoint.
- Key support lies at 1.1469, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1395, and then 1.1350.
- Recovery attempts would need a move above the 21-day SMA, with next resistance near 1.1650 and 1.1700.
USD Performance Over the Past Week
The US Dollar has been the strongest major currency over the past seven days, especially against the Japanese Yen, gaining 1.70%.
