The USD/CHF pair extended its upward momentum for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, rising to a near two-week high around 0.8065–0.8070 during Asian trading. The steady climb reflects ongoing demand for the US Dollar (USD) and waning support for the Swiss Franc (CHF), keeping the pair biased to the upside.
Stronger US Dollar Drives Gains
The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced to its highest level since late May as traders scaled back expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. The October FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed a divided committee, with some policymakers reluctant to support another cut. This shift toward a less dovish Fed stance continues to underpin broad USD strength.
The USD’s resilience also comes despite lingering worries about the economic impact of the record-long US government shutdown. For now, stronger rate expectations outweigh those concerns, reinforcing bullish sentiment toward USD/CHF.
Weak Swiss Data and Risk-On Mood Pressure CHF
Market reaction to the latest US-Swiss trade deal was muted, overshadowed by recent data showing Switzerland’s export-reliant economy contracted in Q3 — its first drop in more than two years. This soft economic pulse has contributed to the CHF’s underperformance.
Additionally, a fresh wave of risk-on sentiment globally has reduced demand for traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, offering further support to USD/CHF.
Still, expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep interest rates at 0% in December due to inflation concerns may help prevent sharper CHF depreciation.
NFP Report in Focus
USD bulls may refrain from making aggressive bets until the release of the delayed US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later on Thursday. The data will offer key insights into the labor market and could influence expectations for Fed policy into December.
Even so, given fundamentals and recent price action, the near-term outlook for USD/CHF remains constructive. A strong technical breakout above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) further supports prospects for continued upside momentum.
About Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The Nonfarm Payrolls report measures monthly job creation in the US economy, excluding agricultural roles. It is one of the most market-moving indicators because:
- It reflects overall economic performance
- It directly impacts Federal Reserve policy decisions
- It often triggers significant forex volatility
Upcoming release:
- Date: Thu, Nov 20, 2025 at 13:30
- Consensus: 50K
- Previous: 22K
Generally, stronger-than-expected NFP figures boost the US Dollar, while weaker data tends to pressure it — though traders also consider revisions and the unemployment rate when assessing the full report.
